Research commissioned by OpenAI and Anthropic claims that workers are more efficient when using AI
The largest takeaway from the ECB economists' research is that AI just hasn't made much of an impact: "Overall, in terms of job creation and destruction, we find no significant difference between businesses that report using AI and those that don’t," they said.
When digging into the data, companies with the greatest AI use and investment were slightly more likely to take on new workers, compared to those that didn't use AI. This isn't an enormous trend, but it's the absolute opposite of the story being told by many of the companies instigating recent tech layoffs.
"The overall growth in employment is driven by firms that use AI to promote research and development (R&D) and innovation — key determinants of business growth," the ECB economists argue.
Although they admit they can't categorize the kind of employees that companies invested in and using AI are hiring, they are certainly hiring for AI-related R&D, and therefore are likely to be taking them on for skilled positions.
This backs up a recent report that many AI layoff claims are bogus , with poor business practices and over-hiring post-pandemic being the key drivers of layoffs. Recent surveys of tech leaders also found that over 80% of companies using AI heavily have found little to no productivity gains .
So why isn't AI driving the productivity explosion disruption that AI companies promise? Why aren't small teams of single individuals offering leaner, more efficient alternatives to the gargantuan software giants who are idle and sluggish in comparison?
Sure, there are a few instances of individuals using AI to write scripts for videos, and then AI to make those videos, and AI to voice those videos: AI slop factories are running rampant. Hackers are using AI to accelerate their research and find new attack vectors to make them more effective, and the world of software development is shifting around tools like Claude Code.
But for those employed at large companies looking to use AI, the technology just isn't the magic bullet it's being sold as. Vibe-coded apps and services often contain bugs and compliance issues, AI-written articles make up quotes, and AI military targeting software makes egregious errors that cost real lives , reports Nature .
So, while some claim that AI tools are driving layoffs, that's just not what the data is telling us. Instead, businesses are using AI as a scapegoat to excuse poor business decisions, a reaction to global trade and economic disruption, and a desperate cover story for AI investments that have yet to pay off for anyone but Nvidia.
The ECB report's conclusion is clear: "As things stand, based on firms’ overall hiring plans, investment in and the intensive use of AI are not yet replacing jobs."
The "Yet" in that sentence is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but the ECB's economists aren't the first to draw this conclusion, and there's a growing body of evidence that if the AI productivity boon was coming down the pipe, it would have started to show up by now.
Jon Martindale is a contributing writer for Tom's Hardware. For the past 20 years, he's been writing about PC components, emerging technologies, and the latest software advances. His deep and broad journalistic experience gives him unique insights into the most exciting technology trends of today and tomorrow. ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-18/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Jon Martindale Freelance Writer Jon Martindale is a contributing writer for Tom's Hardware. For the past 20 years, he's been writing about PC components, emerging technologies, and the latest software advances. His deep and broad journalistic experience gives him unique insights into the most exciting technology trends of today and tomorrow.
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ai-creates-jobs-data-from-bank-survey-shows-companies-with-wide-ai-deployments-and-investments-are-more-likely-to-be-hiring-than-those-that-dont#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com
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