Jowi Morales Social Links Navigation Contributing Writer Jowi Morales is a tech enthusiast with years of experience working in the industry. He’s been writing with several tech publications since 2021, where he’s been interested in tech hardware and consumer electronics.
bit_user First, it sounded like Chinese memory makers weren't going to have much volume, in the near future. The whole story about big memory makers exiting the DDR4 market started with China poised to start exporting some, but only in volumes big enough to cause price erosion and not nearly sufficient to completely replace the production of all the existing players. Even though they went more for DDR5 than DDR4, it still sounds like their production volumes aren't enough to make up for the overall DDR5 supply shortage. Second, I think the Chinese market is probably just as hungry for memory as everyone else. So, I think China won't be a savior, especially since Chinese customers probably get preferential access to their supply. Finally, I'm curious how these chips compare to ones from the big 3, and particularly SK Hynix. Especially if they're stuck on an older node, do they use a lot more power? How do the timings compare? Reply
Shiznizzle "And even if all three companies decide to increase production capacity and build new fabs today, it will take several years for these facilities to come online, meaning the shortage might be well over by then." And yet we are told that this mem shortage could continue for up to a decade. Two little fabs makign DDR5 are now making all of the worlds' ddr5. OF course they are going to say that they are not goign to ramp up production nor build extra capacity. The money is rolling in like you would not believe, that is why. Follow the money. And only two companies, not three, are now making consumer grade DDR5/RAM. Micron pulled out. Nearly everything we buy is made in china so what difference does it make if some Chinese fabs now make up for the DDR5 shortfall? My favorite motherboard maker is MSI and they are chinese. My beloved french Kuota Kobalt shimano Ultegra DI02 equipped road bike, was made in china. My Asus and Gigabyte boards would not last more than 2-3 years at the most. My first gen ryzen board make by MSI now live upstairs from me in my neighbors house as i gave her the hardware to run a first gen ryzen 5 1500x. It still performs. Albeit a bit slowly but it still runs. My last Asus board is prolly in india by now being burned alive for its metals. Reply
bit_user Shiznizzle said: OF course they are going to say that they are not goign to ramp up production nor build extra capacity. The money is rolling in like you would not believe, that is why. Follow the money. Geez, why does everyone just assume DRAM makers are acting in bad faith? If you need a villain so badly, look no further than the AI bros. Micron is building 3 new facilities in the US, at least one in Japan, and one in Taiwan. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-to-begin-work-on-usd100-billion-new-york-megafab-imminently-landmark-site-to-produce-40-percent-of-companys-overall-dram-output-in-the-u-s-by-the-2040s https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/micron-plans-hbm-fab-in-japan-as-ai-memory-race-accelerates https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/micron-secures-318-million-taiwanese-subsidy-for-hbm-rd-as-ai-memory-arms-race-intensifies I don't follow Samsung or SK Hynix as closely, but I'm sure they're also scaling up to meet projected long-term demand. Shiznizzle said: And only two companies, not three, are now making consumer grade DDR5/RAM. Micron pulled out. Wrong. What Micron did was to shutdown its own Crucial brand. The company still sells DDR5 chips on the open market, and anyone can source them to make their own DIMMs. Most DIMM brands are not owned by any of the DRAM fab operators. Crucial was one of the exceptions. Shiznizzle said: My favorite motherboard maker is MSI and they are chinese. Headquartered in Taiwan. That's a massive difference. Not so much for a motherboard maker, but it means everything that TSMC is a Taiwanese company, not mainland Chinese. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micro-Star_International Shiznizzle said: My beloved french Kuota Kobalt shimano Ultegra DI02 equipped road bike, was made in china. There's no comparison between bicycle manufacturing and semiconductor fabrication. Shiznizzle said: My Asus and Gigabyte boards would not last more than 2-3 years at the most. They were probably made in factories located in mainland China, just like your MSI board. Reply
usertests bit_user said: Geez, why does everyone just assume DRAM makers are acting in bad faith? If you need a villain so badly, look no further than the AI bros. People just don't get it. They see Micron killing Crucial and they lose their minds. https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/hp-reportedly-eyes-chinese-suppliers-for-dram-as-global-shortage-sparks-shake-up-analyst-says-memory-chips-are-commodities-that-can-easily-be-replaced#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com
- Micron addresses Crucial exit backlash: 'We are trying to help consumers around the world' — company warns that DRAM drought could last until at least 2028
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Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.