"There will come a time — space is great for a lot of things," Altman added. "Orbital data centers are not something that is going to matter at scale this decade."
While launching hardware into space is expensive, there must first be hardware to launch. Leading-edge process technologies — such as TSMC’s N4 (4nm-class) — used to build leading-edge AI accelerators like Nvidia’s B200/B300, advanced CPUs, sophisticated DPUs, and network processors are not radiation-hardened , meaning that they cannot survive in space. Yet radiation-hardened fabrication technologies tend to be rather outdated (think 90nm), so before space-worthy computational hardware emerges, new process technologies must be developed.
In addition to space-worthy microelectronics, the industry must also develop space-worthy cooling systems and power generation technologies that are capable of powering millions of AI accelerators. Companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin are probably closer to developing such infrastructure than traditional companies specializing in terrestrial data centers, which is perhaps why Musk and Bezos are so vocal about orbital data centers today, even if they are not going to become viable for at least a decade from now.
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Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/premium
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-fires-back-at-elon-musks-proposal-for-space-based-data-centers-says-orbiting-data-centers-ridiculous-for-now-cites-high-failure-rates-and-cost-as-primary-limiters#main
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Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.