IDC expects average PC prices to jump by up to 8% in 2026 due to crushing memory shortages
The February spot data comes against a backdrop of sharply higher contract price forecasts, with TrendForce revising its Q1 2026 conventional DRAM contract price outlook upward in early February, raising its estimate from a prior 55-60% quarter-over-quarter increase to 90-95%. PC DRAM is now projected to more than double quarter-over-quarter, which TrendForce described as a new quarterly record. Meanwhile, NAND flash contract prices are forecast to rise 55-60% QoQ, also revised up from an earlier 33-38% estimate.
We’re all aware at this point that it’s AI infrastructure that’s driving these increases, having continued to pull memory capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, leaving conventional DRAM and consumer NAND segments undersupplied. North American cloud service providers have been pulling forward orders since late 2025, locking in allocations and pushing other buyers down the priority queue. TrendForce noted that even tier-1 PC OEMs with secured supplier allocations have seen inventory levels decline.
On the NAND side, the February spot jump extends a troubling, longer-term trend. According to DigiTimes , which cited ChinaFlashMarket data, 1Tb QLC/TLC flash wafer prices have roughly tripled since October 2025, with 512Gb TLC prices up nearly fivefold over the same period. This is because suppliers have been redirecting capacity toward enterprise SSDs , where margins are higher, limiting wafer availability for module makers and sustaining upward pressure across the category.
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Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/memory-spot-prices-climbed-again-in-february-nand-wafer-costs-surge-25-percent#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com
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