SSGBryan Repeat after me: China doesn't have the sealift capacity to invade Taiwan. Reply
PEnns Maybe because they remember the warnings about the "lethal Iraqi WMDs" in the 1990s….from the same US agencies. Reply
Shadowself Why is this considered news? Xi made speech, which was made public, back in 2023 (early 2023?) in which he told the world that it was his intent to make the PRC's military so capable by the end of 2027 that the PRC could take Taiwan by force even if the U.S. military got directly involved in defending Taiwan. Xi wanted to be able to take over 100% of Taiwan at any time he wanted to after the end of 2027. Nothing has changed since that time. Yes, the modernization and expansion of the PRC military and intelligence communities are moving ahead more slowly than Xi would like, but they are still moving forward with the same goal just maybe eventually a year or two behind the original schedule. Anyone who says this is news is just not paying attention. Reply
Shadowself SSGBryan said: Repeat after me: China doesn't have the sealift capacity to invade Taiwan. China has a mandatory expansion into their "commercial" fleet. They have exercised this multiple times over the past few years. With that "ready reserve fleet" they can mobilize as much as they need. Reply
Findecanor SSGBryan said: Repeat after me: China doesn't have the sealift capacity to invade Taiwan. Oh really? There have been many reports of Chinese shipyards building landing crafts. China has also become officially more hostile against Japan, warning Chinese people from visiting Japan which has already led to a significant drop in Chinese visitors there. Reply
Notton I keep hearing "China's ready to invade Taiwan", right along side "China's about to implode/bankrupt/kaput/done for/etc" for over a decade at this point, and neither has happened. Reply
80251 Shadowself said: China has a mandatory expansion into their "commercial" fleet. They have exercised this multiple times over the past few years. With that "ready reserve fleet" they can mobilize as much as they need. If you're using civilian ships to transport troops and equipment you better have complete aerial supremacy — otherwise those ships will just be targets, not only for Taiwan's air force but anti-ship missiles. I've read Taiwan is quite the porcupine and that even if the PRC succeeds the losses in military equipment will be catastrophic (especially if the US comes to their assistance). Reply
endocine id like to say stock up tech, but AI inflation has already made things cost prohibitive, it does mean though that there will be at least a decade of no to extremely limited availability, and severely curtailed development. That will be the least of anyone's worries though. No new smart phones, tablets, computers, and anything that uses tech. It will be like taking a step back in time to when we didnt have AI and Wifi in our household appliances, cars, and everything else. Maybe that will be a good thing though in some ways, getting a break from all this madness Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/us-govt-warned-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-tim-cook-and-lisa-su-that-china-could-invade-taiwan-by-2027-apple-ceo-reportedly-said-he-sleeps-with-one-eye-open#main
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