More than 10% chance AI 'could kill all humans' in the next 10 years, Anthropic safety researcher says
Three models are presented, from "modest" economical impact to "extreme." The modest model establishes a 1.6% GDP rise to $34.1 trillion, an impact Anthropic says is in line with that of new technologies like the internet, and crucially, doesn't imply tectonic shifts to unemployment rates or wages.
For the "substantial impact" scenario, although AI is predicted to be able to do half of "knowledge work," mostly without intervention, adoption remains limited. This scenario foresees twice the normal economic growth, this time +8.3% to $36.3 trillion.
This future marks the inflection point at which Anthropic believes knowledge workers see their wages remain steady instead of growing, though it's not clear if the firm accounts for inflation. Additionally, the firm states that "knowledge workers may see a lot of automation and displacement […] coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse", a statement some might argue is already true. In that sense, Anthropic expects other workers to start seeing more cash.
The eyebrow-raising prediction for both the above scenarios, though, is that Anthropic expects unemployment to "stay within ranges history has seen before," an odd statement given modern U.S. history contains events like the Great Depression. The company does note that it expects job churn to increase, but also that while "this process can be painful, [it] works relatively well from a macroeconomic perspective." Average wages are expected to rise across all three scenarios, though the increase is expected to go towards workers outside of knowledge areas.
In the "extreme" scenario, Anthropic expects significant changes. Should AI be super-widely adopted, the GDP can increase by 32.4%, corresponding to a cool $44.4 trillion, a "profound economic transformation." This is the point at which the firm expects that AI becomes more productive than humans for most knowledge work, and does so with near-autonomy. Equally worryingly, it's expected that there will be "essentially no" new knowledge tasks created.
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Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/anthropic-says-ai-can-boost-u-s-gdp-by-32-percent-up-to-usd44-4-trillion-in-four-years-economics-model-predicts-that-displaced-employees-may-have-to-switch-to-jobs-like-electrician-and-nurse#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com/my-account
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