If you're waiting for phone prices to drop back to Earth, you'll need to be patient. There is relief on the horizon, but it won't arrive in time to save this year's buying cycle. Recognizing that the memory bottleneck is now a threat to the broader tech economy, memory vendors and government regulators are throwing unprecedented billions at the problem. In a historic public-private initiative, the South Korean government recently unveiled an $870 billion (1,350 trillion won) 10-year investment framework with Samsung and SK hynix. The aggressive plan includes breaking ground on multiple mega-fabs in Yongin and Cheongju, with the explicit government-mandated goal of doubling national memory output within five years. Meanwhile, SK hynix is fast-tracking advanced packaging and NAND facilities, and Micron is heavily building out its leading-edge DRAM campuses in the U.S. and Japan.
The problem is, semiconductor fabrication plants take years to build, equip, and scale. Most analysts agree that meaningful, high-volume memory relief won't realistically hit consumer supply chains until mid-2027 at the earliest, with full normalization stretching into 2028 or later. Until we see a major market realignment (or failing that, until those mega-fabs come online), the RAMaggedon will continue to dictate what handsets you can buy in the smartphone aisle.
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Zak is a freelance contributor to Tom's Hardware with decades of PC benchmarking experience who has also written for HotHardware and The Tech Report. A modern-day Renaissance man, he may not be an expert on anything, but he knows just a little about nearly everything. ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-25/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Zak Killian Contributor Zak is a freelance contributor to Tom's Hardware with decades of PC benchmarking experience who has also written for HotHardware and The Tech Report. A modern-day Renaissance man, he may not be an expert on anything, but he knows just a little about nearly everything.
PEnns Let it collapse. The needs and well being of our AI overlords are sacred and essential to the Tech Bros and their shills. /s Reply
cyrusfox The used market is looking better and better; honestly, a 3-to-6-year-old former flagship phone likely performs much better than a brand-new budget smartphone anyway. There isn't much of a penalty for missing out on the absolute newest cellular bands since network standards aren't changing rapidly anymore. We already have so few players left in the U.S. Market share is dominated heavily by Apple and Samsung, followed by Google, Motorola, and OnePlus. The even smaller niche players are ASUS, Nothing, and Sony. Sony is my favorite, but its network band support in the U.S. is severely limited because of carrier whitelists, the Sprint and T-Mobile merger should have been blocked, no benefit at all… What is left globally are the legally restricted players, Huawei and ZTE. The rest of the world heavily uses independent Chinese giants like Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Honor. Domestic Chinese semiconductors from YMTC (for storage) and CXMT (for RAM) are likely powering them, keeping their supply chains completely self-sufficient. Reply
SmokyBarnable I, and I suspect millions of other western consumers, would love to have access to the full Chinese tech market. Reply
thestryker PEnns said: Let it collapse. This is fine as long as the companies making the less expensive products are able to stick around. The fear is that companies making affordable client products may end up going under or consolidating both of which are bad for your regular buyer. Given how much time this is likely to go on for and since nobody is coming to the rescue this fear seems likely to occur. Reply
PEnns thestryker said: This is fine as long as the companies making the less expensive products are able to stick around. The fear is that companies making affordable client products may end up going under or consolidating both of which are bad for your regular buyer. Given how much time this is likely to go on for and since nobody is coming to the rescue this fear seems likely to occur. I edited my post: Added /s at the end. Reply
ezst036 The used phone market is a very worthy replacement for the budget market. This is almost a non story. If anything a used phone is a better option than these cheapy junk phones. Has anybody ever seen these cheap things? It's actually quite insulting. A used mid-level or even used high end phone is a way better thing to have in someone's hands who is of less economic means. Reply
thestryker PEnns said: I edited my post: Added /s at the end. I blame being tired this morning and it being two separate lines for me not noticing your point it makes sense. Reply
adamboy64 That's a tricky one. The used phone market would be a whole lot more appealing if removable batteries were the norm. Perhaps the EU might guide us back to that path.. slowly. Reply
cknobman PEnns said: Let it collapse. The needs and well being of our AI overlords are sacred and essential to the Tech Bros and their shills. /s Exactly. We just need to be patient and wait for AI to collapse all the markets it wants to serve. Reply
cyrusfox adamboy64 said: That's a tricky one. The used phone market would be a whole lot more appealing if removable batteries were the norm. Perhaps the EU might guide us back to that path.. slowly. Its not too bad to replace yourself, if you have to pay someone else, yeah not usually worth it. If you have a 3d printer, can use the stage to heat up the phone evenly to soften the glue before removing the screen, Batteries are quite cheap. I have a nearly 6 year old S20FE whose display finally went out , battery still reporting 70%, Battery was still usable but a bit tired (reduced daily life), I am replacing the screen and battery for under $60. This will be a much better backup phone than my Chinese makes (Have an Oppo and a Huawei) or the old S10/S9 I still have (my old work phones). These phones never die, been awhile since I had to retire a phone, Both my last LGs I lost due to damage (LG G4 ran over by a car as it came out my pocket cycling up hill, Lg G6 fell out of a stroller while running and cracked the display, still functional but not worth repairing, the only phone to die on its own was a Note 4, would only work when chilled in the fridge/freezer then would boot loop. I would much rather a used premier phone than any of these new e-waste devices. I am partial to a physical 3.5 port, I am using a Moto g Power 5G (2024) currently (8gb/128gb), I got it for $80 from bestbuy a couple months back. Only got it as my work software wouldn't allow me to keep using my S10 due to force android security update thresholds it was not longer capable of meeting due to Samsung abandoning it. Otherwise the S10 is still solid. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/phones/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/phones/budget-smartphone-market-collapses-under-the-weight-of-memory-shortages-sales-expected-to-drop-22-percent-memory-alone-now-comprises-up-to-64-percent-of-the-total-cost-of-lower-tier-smartphones#main
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Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.