Right now, SemiAnalysis reports that project Terafab Grimes phase 1 will be built in 20 months, equipped in 17 months, and ramped to volume in six months. Analysts project that the fab will begin operation in late 2029 and then ramped to volume by mid-2030.
An interesting note about Terafab's volume fab is that SpaceX reportedly ordered semiconductor manufacturing equipment in April 2026, several months before officially announcing the Grimes County location. This indicates that the company committed to its manufacturing plans well before the public groundbreaking. In addition, this makes the mid-2028 equipment installation forecast plausible, given the long lead times associated with advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Intel plans to begin risk production using its 14A (1.4nm-class) fabrication process in the second half of 2027 and initiate high-volume manufacturing (HVM) in the second half of 2028 if everything goes as planned. This puts Intel's ramp into HVM at least 1.5 years ahead of SpaceX’s Terafab Grimes Phase 1.
This means that while Terafab will get a proven advanced manufacturing technology, presumably with decent yields, it will not be the absolute best production node at the time, as TSMC intends to start volume production of chips using its A12 fabrication process in late 2029. A12 is a 1.2nm-class process with TSMC's second-generation nanosheet GAA transistors and backside power delivery. Intel will be close to unveiling its 14A-P node at the same time.
Nonetheless, since Terafab will likely exclusively serve SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI, a slightly less advanced node will not be a big problem for the company, as the potential cost increases incurred by using a more sophisticated manufacturing technology will be offset by using an in-house production facility.
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Anton Shilov Social Links Navigation Contributing Writer Anton Shilov is a contributing writer at Tom’s Hardware. Over the past couple of decades, he has covered everything from CPUs and GPUs to supercomputers and from modern process technologies and latest fab tools to high-tech industry trends.
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- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/elon-musks-terafab-will-reportedly-receive-its-first-euv-tool-from-asml-in-mid-2027-cutting-edge-scanner-could-sit-idle-for-some-time-as-experimental-facility-is-completed#main
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