The Dragonfly lineup heads into a market where buyers are being “nudged” toward Huawei and Cambricon.
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Qualcomm told investors that the data center unit is expected to generate $300 million this fiscal year and $5 billion in fiscal year 2027, figures the company designates as the early ramp of a total addressable market it projects will exceed $1 trillion by 2029. The push into China relies on Amon's argument that Qualcomm's existing relationships with Chinese phone makers and automakers extend to the data center, the same customer base behind its AI200 and AI250 inference accelerators announced last October.
China, however, isn’t a neutral buyer for Qualcomm at the moment: The country’s market regulator opened an antitrust investigation into its Autotalks acquisition in October, and has pressed domestic data center operators to source at least 50% of their chips locally while steering Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent toward Huawei and Cambricon parts.
Those dynamics have already gutted the export-compliant model that Qualcomm is looking to emulate. Nvidia’s H20, for example — the part it built specifically for China — had generated only about $50 million by late last year, and CEO Jensen Huang has said Nvidia has “zero” China market share left . Qualcomm is entering that lane voluntarily with hardware that won’t reach customers until at least fiscal year 2027, by which point Huawei's Ascend line and Cambricon's accelerators are scheduled to scale production well past current volumes.
Huawei could seize China’s AI chip crown in 2026 as Nvidia’s H200 shipments stall in regulatory limbo
Nvidia market share in China falls to less than 60%
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/qualcomm-plans-china-specific-data-center-chips-built-to-clear-us-export-limits#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com/membership
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