Recent analysis from ZDNet shows just how favorable this market has become for suppliers. It projects that Samsung and SK hynix could post NAND operating margins of 40-50% for the first half of 2026, levels that would have seemed implausible during the oversupply conditions we saw in 2022 and early 2023. Those margins are predicated not just on higher prices, but disciplined supply management and a willingness to walk away from unfavorable contracts.
ZDNet notes that the industry expects that NAND products will reach record profitability for the first time since 2017, adding that its margins are estimated to have climbed into the 20% range in Q4 2025. NAND prices are expected to rise in stages across Q1 and Q2 of this year, with conservative capital spending continuing to tighten supply and contribute to what is becoming a chronic shortage.
Not all buyers are feeling the effects of this equally, though. Apple is one company that, according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, has shifted its memory price negotiations from a six-monthly to quarterly cadence. He expects LPDDR prices to rise in Apple’s first fiscal quarter of 2026, with further increases likely in the following quarter. NAND price increases are expected to be more modest.
Kuo also notes that many smartphone brands are struggling to secure sufficient memory supply even when they’re willing to pay higher prices. Some Chinese vendors have reportedly delayed product launches or reduced hardware specifications as a result. But Apple’s position is different: While higher memory costs could pressure gross margins in the near term, Kuo suggests the iPhone maker is willing to absorb those costs to protect shipment volumes, adding that Apple is considering keeping its starting prices for its planned iPhone 18 lineup largely unchanged.
All these factors together demonstrate that there’s a structural shift taking place in how memory is allocated and sold. The balance of power has moved firmly back toward suppliers, and that’s causing contract terms to adjust accordingly.
This doesn’t mean that prices will rise indefinitely. Memory remains a cyclical, capital-intensive industry, and periods of high profitability tend to attract overinvestment. But the current contract changes suggest that suppliers are prioritizing margin discipline and pricing flexibility over volume stability, and will continue to do so in at least the medium term.
Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist.\u00a0 Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.\u00a0 ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-13/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Luke James Social Links Navigation Contributor Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist. Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/samsung-and-sk-hynix-shorten-memory-contracts-as-pricing-power-shifts-back-to-suppliers#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com
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Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.