dlheliski "ENIAC cost the government $400,000 in 1946, meaning it would probably cost around $6,850,297.44 today" Does the author have any concept of significant digits? One in the original price, and 9 in his inflation adjusted price. Reply
Ricket5 usertests said: https://archive.ph/eWT4P While mid-2025 prices were much better than 2007 prices, that two decade period included a lot of stagnation. Prices spiked around 2009, 2013, 2017, and to a lesser extent during the pandemic. Seems like a pattern of cyclical price increases every 4-5 years. Density improvements also slowed down considerably, which is why we saw half measures like the 24/48 GB modules based on 24 Gb dies. 3D DRAM will bring us to the promised land… 10+ years from now. The cheap RAM era was when memory companies were trying to stay afloat and at risk of going under. Going back to that, for an extended period, means they go under and there is no more RAM. Consumers get a good deal with companies are failing businesses and losing money but selling to try to survive long enough to bring money in. Then consumers get mad when companies are no longer desperate. Companies win when demand is so out of control the various bidders (currently hyper scalers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) bid up the price into the stratosphere driving out smaller buyers. It's a stupidly violatile industry. Even worse that volatility means that smaller companies keep getting called off each time profits drop. So eras of cheap RAM inherently create and enforce a monopoly. Boom ears bring in more companies. If RAM becomes cheap enough the DIY crowd is happy we will simply see more companies go under and the monopolies get stronger yet again. For example a drop in RAM prices that DIY crowds loved bankrupted Elpida. So Micron bought them out. The cost of periods of cheap RAM is even stronger monopolies resulting in higher prices in the long term. Reply
usertests Ricket5 said: So eras of cheap RAM inherently create and enforce a monopoly. Boom ears bring in more companies. If RAM becomes cheap enough the DIY crowd is happy we will simply see more companies go under and the monopolies get stronger yet again. There is a way other than oversupply to get cheaper RAM: higher density resulting in lower cost per bit on the manufacturing side. It took a long time to double from 16 Gb to 32 Gb. 3D DRAM will reverse the stagnation. But it's going to take around 10 years. Reply
Alastor01 Ricket5 said: The cheap RAM era was when memory companies were trying to stay afloat and at risk of going under. Going back to that, for an extended period, means they go under and there is no more RAM. Consumers get a good deal with companies are failing businesses and losing money but selling to try to survive long enough to bring money in. Then consumers get mad when companies are no longer desperate. Companies win when demand is so out of control the various bidders (currently hyper scalers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) bid up the price into the stratosphere driving out smaller buyers. It's a stupidly violatile industry. Even worse that volatility means that smaller companies keep getting called off each time profits drop. So eras of cheap RAM inherently create and enforce a monopoly. Boom ears bring in more companies. If RAM becomes cheap enough the DIY crowd is happy we will simply see more companies go under and the monopolies get stronger yet again. For example a drop in RAM prices that DIY crowds loved bankrupted Elpida. So Micron bought them out. The cost of periods of cheap RAM is even stronger monopolies resulting in higher prices in the long term. Or they can just sell it at a good profit without ripping off everyone? Reply
crimsonbytes Wow this title really needs some help. Usually prices "reverting to xxxx year levels" is generally interpreted as "the price has gone down." 2007 levels per GB according to the article is ~$11/GB in 2007. In 2024 it was ~$4.75/GB for ddr5, less for ddr4. Yeah, so the title only holds on a technicality. The price is still up 2x+. And since most people don't read the article and only the title, they wouldn't see the meat of the article – which *still* doesn't state the numbers I stated above because the author had to factor in inflation to the 2024 numbers.. bro… Inflation is up there but it wasn't 100+% since 2y ago Reply
Dntknwitall It is going to happen soon with a major collapse in the stock market. There is going to be a major sell off and everything is going to crash and companies are going to be bankrupt. AI will be dead in the water and it will create a massive oversupply that will cause prices to crash below 2025 prices. Nothing can sustain the prices we see now as they are artificial and will not last. The greed is going to send these companies into the ground by mid 2027 in the exact way I have explained above. Reply
cloverpi "They're cheaper than they were in 2007". Riiiiiiight. Let's compare to a time when all the ram companies were caught price fixing and use that as our reference point. Absolutely wild take. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/scientist-says-ram-pricing-has-reverted-to-normalized-2007-levels-memory-prices-have-been-falling-exponentially-for-decades-but-the-ai-shortage-undid-20-years-of-progress-in-a-matter-of-months#main
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