The Senate's new SAFE bill is set to curb access to advanced chips to China, but that won't slow down the AI war
Unfortunately for Tesla, this has already happened. In April last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk complained that a Chinese block on exporting "rare-earth magnets" had impacted production of the Tesla Optimus robot. He was forced to ask for a license to use them – perhaps an in-person visit would have helped .
China took all rare earth mineral resources within its borders under state ownership in the fall of 2024, so its leadership has the top-down control necessary to maintain tight controls on the supply of these kinds of critical materials well into the future. Although it has cut that supply outright to the U.S. several times during the ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration, it has since begun issuing limited export licenses to some companies.
The American government is aware of this chokepoint in its supply of such critical materials – many of which are also important for national security and the production of cutting-edge silicon – and is attempting to develop a new stockpile to provide a buffer against China's dominance. But even that $12 billion investment would only amount to a 60-day reserve, and its focus is on providing the necessary materials for civilian needs. In such a scenario where access to raw materials was cut off, Tesla would be forced to compete with many other firms and organizations that need those same materials.
Even beyond the risk of mercurial leadership threatening trade relations, China also has its own domestic humanoid robotics industry to consider. There are over 100 Chinese companies currently working on designs, and Chinese officials are making moves to centralize their development to accelerate progress and cut down on parallel research.
Chinese companies are already shipping consumer-grade robots, with over 13,000 deployed in 2025 alone . That's years of production ahead of the several hundred prototype Optimus models Tesla has made.
Just as BYD has overtaken Tesla in the EV space , China seems almost destined to get a huge head start in humanoid robotics over Western companies like Tesla. It already has more units in the world, its production is already higher, its access to key technologies and raw materials is better, and on tap.
Everything is close, efficient, and available. That's not something Tesla or other Western robotics firms can match.
And if China ever needed to slow down the competition, it could turn the tap off for those same supplies that are much harder to find anywhere else. Even if that didn't halt progression elsewhere, it would have a huge effect on pricing.
With Tesla hoping to get its Optimus down to $30,000 per unit in the future, the realization of that dream may be more down to China's whim than anything else.
Jon Martindale is a contributing writer for Tom's Hardware. For the past 20 years, he's been writing about PC components, emerging technologies, and the latest software advances. His deep and broad journalistic experience gives him unique insights into the most exciting technology trends of today and tomorrow. ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-13/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Jon Martindale Freelance Writer Jon Martindale is a contributing writer for Tom's Hardware. For the past 20 years, he's been writing about PC components, emerging technologies, and the latest software advances. His deep and broad journalistic experience gives him unique insights into the most exciting technology trends of today and tomorrow.
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
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Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/teslas-robotics-ambitions-rest-on-the-knife-edge-of-us-china-trade-relations-due-to-its-supply-chain-the-majority-of-critical-materials-and-suppliers-are-located-in-china#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com
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