Jensen Huang thinks China will develop its own advanced lithography chipmaking tools by 2030
There is some evidence of what that efficiency gap can look like in practice – albeit in memory rather than logic chips. In a June report, Morgan Stanley estimated that Chinese DRAM manufacturer CXMT was producing only around one-third as many bits per wafer as Western competitors. The analysts believed the older process node only accounted for around a third of that shortfall, but said access to lithography was a “hard ceiling” on Chinese memory development. “For advanced logic chips, in theory there could be other innovations to engineer around EUV, but they are not likely to be very efficient and effective,” said Douglas Fuller, a researcher at Copenhagen Business School, in comments to Tom’s Hardware Premium .
It is also why claims that China has reached a particular semiconductor process “node” need to be treated with caution. “If somebody says it's X node – the seven nanometer node, the five nanometer node, the three nanometer node – these words almost have no meaning,” Mack said.
That can be seen in SMIC’s latest chips . Reporting suggests its N+3 process represents meaningful progress towards 5nm-class manufacturing – but the actual measurements show it remains significantly less scaled than established 5nm processes from Samsung and TSMC. That doesn’t mean DUV has reached the end of its useful exploitation.
Micron is an example of how far DUV can be stretched, producing competitive DRAM chips using DUV, multiple patterning and tight process control. Its 1-alpha generation of chips was developed without EUV . “They pushed 193 farther than any of the other memory makers did,” Mack said. “They were able to make very competitive chips with 100% 193 compared to Samsung and Hynix making them with many layers of EUV.”
Morgan Stanley believes CXMT’s planned move to 1-alpha DRAM – which it wants to use for HBM3e – is achievable without access to EUV, citing Micron as evidence. Indeed, “by the end of the decade, advanced packaging will allow firms to use DUV to produce the latest generations of DRAM,” reckons Fuller.
Micron also designed its products around the manufacturing technology available to it, rather than simply trying to recreate an EUV process on older equipment – something which could be a useful lesson for Chinese manufacturers. “If the entire ecosystem of 193 immersion were available to China,” Mack explained, “then they could probably push a long way with 193 multiple patterning, especially if they optimise designs for the fact that they're going to be using that.”
But Micron was making memory, whose highly repetitive structures make close co-ordination between chip design and manufacturing easier than it is for the much more complicated logic processors found in phones and computers.
“Memory is a lot easier than logic,” Mack said.
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/china-can-make-advanced-chips-without-euv-but-the-bill-keeps-growing-duv-multiple-patterning-means-bigger-dies-lower-yields-and-longer-manufacturing-times#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com/my-account
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Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.