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Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist.\u00a0 Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.\u00a0 ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-20/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Luke James Social Links Navigation Contributor Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist. Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.
Notton "Center for Strategic & International Studies" is a think tank, and it should be pointed out in the article. Their funding sources can influence their objectivity. As in, they might say what their patrons want to hear, so take what they say with a grain of salt. Reply
pug_s I am sure if Chinese companies are able to buy the latest EUV lithography machines, things would be much different. Instead they are spending billions of R&D to developing their own. Reply
blitzkrieg316 They are about 3.6 times bigger than the US. The US GDP is also 50% higher. This means China is subsidizing multiple times more per person but from a much smaller tax pool thus plunging their artificially supported economy further into oblivion. This site is very pro communist China… disturbing. Follow the money I guess… Reply
usertests blitzkrieg316 said: They are about 3.6 times bigger than the US. The US GDP is also 50% higher. This means China is subsidizing multiple times more per person but from a much smaller tax pool thus plunging their artificially supported economy further into oblivion. Chyna spending $142 billion on semiconductor infrastructure/subsidies over 10 years isn't going to bankrupt them. Their annual government spending is $4.3 trillion, with $3.5 trillion in revenue (US is $7.1 trillion spending, $5.3 trillion revenue). $14 billion a year that has developed some success stories like YMTC, and may eventually deliver them EUV and other technologies that they are denied. Reply
nookoool blitzkrieg316 said: They are about 3.6 times bigger than the US. The US GDP is also 50% higher. This means China is subsidizing multiple times more per person but from a much smaller tax pool thus plunging their artificially supported economy further into oblivion. This site is very pro communist China… disturbing. Follow the money I guess… About 10$ per a chinese citizen a year directed to semiconductor subsidy will lead to their economy into oblivion? Reply
zsydeepsky "disruptive failure" is objectively correct, the only problem is…China never planned to achieve that in 2026. in China's roadmap, it was never considered feasible to own domestic EUV tech by the year 2026; instead, the most optimistic target was to own domestic DUV tech by the year 2025, thus it could secure 7nm-level chips supply to support the basic needs for IT/AI requirements. The policy maker's target was always, to be 2-3 generations behind the West, until China completes its own EUV. …so far, it has achieved perfectly, even beating its most optimistic plans. By the looks of Huawei products, China has achieved domestic DUV & 6nm chips in year 2025. and along the way, the entire semiconductor ecosystem around the mature nodes, this report actually mentioned it yet considered it as a somewhat "failure": advanced “legacy” chips—28 nm and higher—where their market share has risen substantially. While legacy chips occupy a large share of the overall semiconductor industry, a lead there still leaves Chinese companies behind their foreign counterparts and industry leaders. in the report, it quoted a 2024 article from The Wire, so I gonna just also quote the graph in that article as well: Which country is projected to expand their chips capacity the most over the next decade? Or, a more recent 2026 article from Reuters: China's manufacturing capacity for chips made on mature 22nm to 40nm process nodes – used in cars, smartphones and electronics – is projected to reach 42% of global output by 2028 , up from 37% in 2026 So the data is there, but it's up to YOU to consider if it's a failure or a success. Reply
Thunder64 zsydeepsky said: "disruptive failure" is objectively correct, the only problem is…China never planned to achieve that in 2026. in China's roadmap, it was never considered feasible to own domestic EUV tech by the year 2026; instead, the most optimistic target was to own domestic DUV tech by the year 2025, thus it could secure 7nm-level chips supply to support the basic needs for IT/AI requirements. The policy maker's target was always, to be 2-3 generations behind the West, until China completes its own EUV. …so far, it has achieved perfectly, even beating its most optimistic plans. By the looks of Huawei products, China has achieved domestic DUV & 6nm chips in year 2025. and along the way, the entire semiconductor ecosystem around the mature nodes, this report actually mentioned it yet considered it as a somewhat "failure": advanced “legacy” chips—28 nm and higher—where their market share has risen substantially. While legacy chips occupy a large share of the overall semiconductor industry, a lead there still leaves Chinese companies behind their foreign counterparts and industry leaders. in the report, it quoted a 2024 article from The Wire, so I gonna just also quote the graph in that article as well: Which country is projected to expand their chips capacity the most over the next decade? Or, a more recent 2026 article from Reuters: China's manufacturing capacity for chips made on mature 22nm to 40nm process nodes – used in cars, smartphones and electronics – is projected to reach 42% of global output by 2028 , up from 37% in 2026 So the data is there, but it's up to YOU to consider if it's a failure or a success. How has giving up on leading edge nodes worked out for GloFo? They too tried the "fast follower" strategy until it was no longer feasible for them. That said, they did not have the huge cash influx and a government hell bent on them becoming a dominant player behind them. Reply
Beltrano "Samsung, and TSMC press on with 2nm processes and achieve yields as high as 90%" Yeah and I'm Santa Claus! Everyone know that Samsung is fighting hard to get good yieald on its 2nm node! Reply
zsydeepsky Thunder64 said: How has giving up on leading edge nodes worked out for GloFo? They too tried the "fast follower" strategy until it was no longer feasible for them. That said, they did not have the huge cash influx and a government hell bent on them becoming a dominant player behind them. The biggest difference is that Global Fundries does not have the US government to protect its market through sanctions. the cash flow SIMC or other Chinese fab got from the Chinese government is actually small, like the article said, $142B through 10 years (and not only for fabs). During the same time period, the Chinese domestic semiconductor market value increased from ~$500B to ~$2000B annually, and the cumulative worth of the market is around $1.3T. This is the market GloFo doesn't have for its old nodes, and which made all the Chinese government investments sustainable. In fact, if the US hadn't launched the tech war, the Chinese fabs would still be weak by now; the US sanctions are literally the best gift they could ever get. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/china-spending-3-6-times-more-than-the-us-on-chipmaking-subsidies#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com
- Nvidia says AI cuts 10-month, eight-engineer GPU design task to overnight job — company is still 'a long way' from AI designing chips without human input
- YMTC's third Wuhan fab clears Beijing's 50% local tooling threshold as two more are planned — move positions company toward 3D NAND production to capitalize on
- National Robotics Week — Latest Physical AI Research, Breakthroughs and Resources
- NVIDIA, Telecom Leaders Build AI Grids to Optimize Inference on Distributed Networks
- Grab the ultra-fast Elegoo Centauri Carbon 3D printer for just $285 right now, saving you $128 — limited-time sale price nets you a fully enclosed Core-XY print
Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.