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Anton Shilov is a contributing writer at Tom\u2019s Hardware. Over the past couple of decades, he has covered everything from CPUs and GPUs to supercomputers and from modern process technologies and latest fab tools to high-tech industry trends. ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-25/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Anton Shilov Social Links Navigation Contributing Writer Anton Shilov is a contributing writer at Tom’s Hardware. Over the past couple of decades, he has covered everything from CPUs and GPUs to supercomputers and from modern process technologies and latest fab tools to high-tech industry trends.
usertests Their RAM costs more to make with DUV. And the US has decided to become EUV policeman. It can have a slightly positive effect simply by addressing some of the domestic demand. Reply
COLGeek Wishful thinking (on the part of consumers) and current market conditions really don't mix well. It would be financially irresponsible to not take those conditions under consideration entering the marketplace. Reply
osbdst Oh wait what. They didn't hit at lower prices. The problem is the shortage. They didn't resolve the shortage. The shortage is so vast it is easier for a fourth and even a fifth manufacturer to come in and bilk the system for billions than it is for supply to catch up to the demand. Not to mention for the supply to surpass the demand which is what is needed to lower prices significantly. The ram manufacturers spent years running on thin margins. All of them are going to bilk this run of egregious surplus margin for as much as they can, and for as long as they can. Reply
usertests osbdst said: Oh wait what. They didn't hit at lower prices. The problem is the shortage. They didn't resolve the shortage. The shortage is so vast it is easier for a fourth and even a fifth manufacturer to come in and bilk the system for billions than it is for supply to catch up to the demand. Not to mention for the supply to surpass the demand which is what is needed to lower prices significantly. The ram manufacturers spent years running on thin margins. All of them are going to bilk this run of egregious surplus margin for as much as they can, and for as long as they can. CXMT's DDR5 memory costs more to make, and has lower quality. The >7x pricing surge has made it profitable, so they have become a part of the conversation. But they are already getting a lower margin than everybody else even if they sold it for the same price. They are undercutting a little so that they can get desperate customers, but they also need to be bilking/milking right now, so that they can reinvest in their manufacturing capabilities and stay in the game once the current situation changes. China Is Coming For Micron's Thick Margins CXMT's DDR5 die is roughly 40% larger than Samsung's equivalent, which means fewer usable chips per wafer and a structurally worse cost base, not a better one. The larger die size is itself a byproduct of working without EUV: older lithography tools can't pack circuits as densely, so CXMT needs more silicon to do the same job. Its cost per bit remains more than 30% above the three leading suppliers, suggesting its current profitability is a function of unusually strong pricing across the whole market, not genuine product superiority. Chinese Memory Chips Accelerate Global Supply Chain Penetration: MSI Validates CXMT DDR5, Samsung Profits Surge 18-Fold No "Fire-Sale" Pricing: CXMT Rejects a Price War Unlike the historical path where Chinese manufacturing captured markets through low-cost dumping, CXMT has adopted a highly pragmatic "follower pricing" strategy during this cycle. According to data from semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis, the average selling price of CXMT's DRAM in the first quarter was only about 5% to 10% lower than that of the three major players, defying earlier market fears of a large-scale price war. Reply
hotaru251 less immediate relief and more "when the bubble pops" ram will be dirt cheap Reply
osbdst usertests said: CXMT's DDR5 memory costs more to make, and has lower quality. The >7x pricing surge has made it profitable, so they have become a part of the conversation. But they are already getting a lower margin than everybody else even if they sold it for the same price. They are undercutting a little so that they can get desperate customers, but they also need to be bilking/milking right now, so that they can reinvest in their manufacturing capabilities and stay in the game once the current situation changes. China Is Coming For Micron's Thick Margins Chinese Memory Chips Accelerate Global Supply Chain Penetration: MSI Validates CXMT DDR5, Samsung Profits Surge 18-Fold Makes sense. It does go with what I am saying. They are going to make that money now. Improve their tech and payback their R&D. Pocket the rest and move on. All the manufacturers know this isn't going to last forever. They are taking full advantage of it while it does. Reply
Zaranthos Those waiting for the AI bubble to burst for RAM or GPU pricing relief will be sorely disappointed. Don't hold your breath. The more I use AI the cooler I think it is and the potential it has will require far more compute hardware than the entire world has right now. There is wishful thinking, and there is reality, it'll be a lot easier to figure out which one is which now and save yourself some stress and frustration. Don't punch the wind, focus on positive change you could affect like companies building where water isn't in short supply or at least supplying their own and cleaning it up along with supplying their own power preferably with a surplus. Reply
Stomx RDRAM 64GB modules were $300 two years ago, now ~$2805 Assuming worst case scenario that two years ago they had zero profit margin and $300 was the production cost we will estimate Profit margin =(revenue-cost)/revenue = $2805-300)/2805 = 89 % 90% pure profit. Actually it is probably 95% All narcodillers will hang themselves from jealousy Reply
Cmdr_Scotty Let's call it what it really is, price fixing. Why would they ever sell it cheaper than the competition? The big three already keep things as high as the customers will pay, regardless if they actually need to charge that much. We already know there's investigations underway on the big three for price fixing to keep things higher than it should be. Now cxmt is joining the ranks, why would they undercut when demand is still skyhigh? Reply
Dntknwitall This is why the market has been price fixed. These companies do not want to sell ram cheap so they collude to fix the market in their favor. China will supply China first and that means there won't be enough to make a dent in the market here in North America or Europe. The only thing we can do is push back on AI that has no benefit to us at all, I say no benefit because it is only going to affect us negatively for the foreseeable future. AI is not for us it is for the elites and governments to control the world and create a surveillance state where we cant do anything without being questioned or harassed by these tyrants. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinese-cxmt-dram-doesnt-look-like-the-budget-savior-many-were-expecting-new-modules-enter-the-market-but-prices-still-track-the-big-three#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com/subscription
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Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.