NAND flash is also being pulled into the AI boom. High-capacity enterprise SSDs are increasingly being used for model storage, data staging and key-value cache offloading, allowing colder portions of AI workloads to spill out of expensive DRAM. Flash cannot replace DRAM outright because it offers considerably lower bandwidth, but it can still serve as a tier within AI memory systems, increasing demand for enterprise SSDs and NAND alongside server memory.
Chang expects DRAM contract prices to rise by approximately 30% during the third quarter of 2026 and NAND flash to increase by more than 20%. He expects price growth to moderate again during the fourth quarter.
Elsewhere, analysts project a 40% increase in DRAM prices in Q3 2026 , even as demand extends to the oldest standards still in production. Samsung and SK Hynix, both South Korean companies — who together with US-based Micron Technologies control over 90% of the global DRAM market — had earlier warned that shortages could last beyond 2027 . And the CEO of Adata projects that the global DRAM shortage will run for another 10 years .
Chinese manufacturers are not expected to provide immediate relief. Chang said Chinese memory maker CXMT’s DDR5 products had become competitive and that both CXMT and Chinese NAND producer YMTC had narrowed their pricing gaps with established international suppliers. However, domestic demand in China already exceeds available supply, while capacity expansion, manufacturing yields, product validation and platform compatibility continue to limit their ability to change the global balance. Furthermore, the prices of new DRAM modules from CXMT are reportedly similar to those of the big three .
Stockpiling memory inventory at historically high prices carries the risk of substantial losses if the market suddenly reverses. Apacer, however, says it has seen no evidence of an approaching collapse. For now, the company is betting that possessing expensive memory in 2027 will be considerably better than having no memory to sell at all.
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Etiido Uko is a news contributor for Tom's Hardware covering the latest updates in big tech and the PC industry. He is a mechanical engineer and senior technical writer with over nine years of experience in documentation and reporting. He is deeply passionate about all things engineering and technology, and is an expert in gadgets, manufacturing, robotics, automotive, and aerospace. ","collapsible":{"enabled":true,"maxHeight":250,"readMoreText":"Read more","readLessText":"Read less"}}), "https://slice.vanilla.futurecdn.net/13-4-25/js/authorBio.js"); } else { console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); } Etiido Uko Social Links Navigation News Contributor Etiido Uko is a news contributor for Tom's Hardware covering the latest updates in big tech and the PC industry. He is a mechanical engineer and senior technical writer with over nine years of experience in documentation and reporting. He is deeply passionate about all things engineering and technology, and is an expert in gadgets, manufacturing, robotics, automotive, and aerospace.
Moores_Ghost Most of us know the truth and aren't falling for these companies colluding to make max profit. It's not AI. It's not new data centers. This is pure, naked unmitigated greed. Even if I add the memory in smart weapons that are destroyed on impact, all AI and commercial and scientific building, video game hardware manufacturers together there's still around 40% of the world's RAM making capacity left. It's not pricing out foreign interest either as even China makes their own now. It is pure boardroom greed after record profits during COVID. They simply do not want to go back to making less money. Please, Tom's. You have a better reputation than this. Reply
Razzi16 Agreed. In late 2023 the memory manufacturers had decided that memory prices were too low, they colluded at that time to collectively reduce capacity over the next year, which would slowly push up the prices, and their profits. This was then compounded by them, last year, giving almost all of their remaining capacity over to the customers wanting HBM, then everything basically just fell off a cliff. They got what they wanted. Reply
SirStephenH Companies stockpiling memory, further increasing demand beyond what is needed at this time, is part of the problem. But of course it wouldn't be an issue if memory makers didn't collude to create this shortage to begin with. Reply
thestryker It's amazing to me how many people think this is some giant conspiracy. The supply of DDR5 has been stable for years and no capacity has been reduced. The problem of course being no capacity has been added outside of China so the sudden spike in demand is far beyond available capacity. The closest to collusion one could even get is the DDR4 situation where the big three decided to cut capacity and when demand spiked they didn't increase capacity. This is almost certainly a reaction to the post covid NAND collapse which got bad enough they couldn't sell NAND at cost for a brief moment. In reality we're in this situation because the memory manufacturers were trying to smooth out the boom and bust cycle of the memory business while taking advantage of the largest profit center at the time (HBM). Now that there's a supply problem they're reaping the rewards like literally any publicly traded company would. While everything going on is pretty horrible it's the system that exists where rationality need not apply when the rich can claim infinite growth. Moores_Ghost said: there's still around 40% of the world's RAM making capacity left. Got any facts to back that up? Reply
teeejay94 I honestly couldn't care less what the numbers say, consumer's have power through purchasing it's a well known fact. The less we buy the more of a message gets sent. The entire Im too cool for school who cares about anything mentality will kill this hobby before times up. Not buying is the coolest thing you can do from now on, buy second hand almost every time, the money goes to a seller who's going to buy something else, keep the cycle going and keep the money in second hand market. It's not much but it's enough of a message, it's still 50 billion dollars per year. Any single person on earth or company would cry themselves to sleep going without 50 billion dollars. Do not care what data centres do or spend. People have the power but they have to try. If they say, well there's no money left in consumer electronics so we pull out, let them. Let Nvidia leave the entire consumer market good riddance. Reply
JayGau Funny how so many people think this is some sort of evil conspiracy. Memory makers have increased their profits by 700% since last year, and you really think it's because people like you and me are buying 32 GB RAM kits for 500$? No, it's AI corporations buying everything they can at any prices Samsung and Micron ask for that is driving this hardware price inflation crysis. Of course RAM makers like it and will do everything they can to make it last as long as they can, but they have certainly not planned this in details for years like a Dr Terror evil mind in his volcano. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/dram-chip-supply-to-module-makers-could-drop-by-more-than-70-percent-year-on-year-in-2027-says-apacer-ceo-demand-for-hbm-and-server-ram-continues-to-devour-manufacturing-capacity#main
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