bigdragon The sooner the better. The lack of alternatives in the advanced tooling sector has made our current shortages worse than they could have been with some proper competition from multiple sources. More is more! Reply
SkyBill40 And if they do, it'll be done on the back of forced labor and stolen IP. As usual. Reply
magbarn Someone needs to compete with ASML, don't care if it's the Chinese. Can't stand the western semiconductor companies at this point so any competitors would be a good thing. Reply
zsydeepsky the fact that Toms Hardware has not aware that Huawei's Tau-scaling/Logic-folding chip was already out for sale… In short, Huawei basically reached first-gen 3nm performance with 6nm process, no EUVs needed. By the year 2030, either China develops EUV, or Huawei extends logic-folding to chips larger than phone SoCs; Jensen's prediction will be realized. Reply
urn66 Anton Shilov is entitled to his skepticism, but there is much work on this development in China that is not public and reported in media, as well as some interesting R+D that has been published in the public domain that provides some clues to alternative approaches to leapfrog current EUV (definitely not on Jensen Huang's timeline). Similar skepticism was expressed about other technology manufacturing sectors where Western observers cast doubt or even ridiculed Chinese efforts until they were surprised to find themselves in the rearview mirror, Lithography may not be much different. I remind readers that the leader of ASML's EUV R+D team is a Chinese who retired from the company and now leads a Chinese team; I suppose he may have some other ideas. Reply
staticks I find it interesting how Western observers and media seem inordinately preoccupied with how China is "several years behind," or how they're currently "far from parity" with ASML. When in reality, it's not where they're at currently, but where they'll be decades from now, that's important. The Chinese don't care where they're at right now, or even where they'll be a couple years from now; they care about where they'll be 20 years from now, 50 years from now, or 100 years from now. That's what matters. The fact that non-Chinese people seem to take such a short-term perspective and are so concerned with immediate results is just slightly bemusing. Reply
Thunder64 staticks said: I find it interesting how Western observers and media seem inordinately preoccupied with how China is "several years behind," or how they're currently "far from parity" with ASML. When in reality, it's not where they're at currently, but where they'll be decades from now, that's important. The Chinese don't care where they're at right now, or even where they'll be a couple years from now; they care about where they'll be 20 years from now, 50 years from now, or 100 years from now. That's what matters. The fact that non-Chinese people seem to take such a short-term perspective and are so concerned with immediate results is just slightly bemusing. China certainly cares where they are at now. That's why they will spend money on EV's or lithography equipment and push it out to bankrupt Western competition so they can be a monopoly later. The problem is just like the rest of the West/Developed countries the aging population. Their replacement rate is terrible and they will lose 100-250 million by 2050. Ideally they would put money into increasing the number of children. No one has figured that out yet though, even with countries like Hungary spending a ton as a percentage of GDP on it. Reply
jp7189 I used to wonder what was so hard about making euv light, and indeed it's not too hard. Whats hard is getting that flash of euv in an extremely precise location. What's darn near impossible is generating that precise pulse 50,000 times per second 24/7, and ASML's next gen is aiming for 2x – 6x improvement. To put the difficulty in to perspective, ASML got their first EUV light source operational in the late 90's, the first prototype in the earlier 2000's (this is seems to be where China is), and it took nearly 20 years of iteration to make it reliable enough for commercialization. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/jensen-huang-thinks-china-will-develop-its-own-advanced-lithography-systems-by-2030-nvidia-ceo-says-achievement-of-that-capability-is-just-a-matter-of-time#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com/membership
- Chinese state media counters Anthropic's call to put brakes on AI development — paper says move is ‘a response to Chinese competition’
- ‘Now We Can Know Everything and Do Anything,’ Jensen Huang Says at Dreamforce
- Micron announces 512GB DDR5-9200 memory modules with 16W power draw — up to 12TB per server, claims 60% less energy-intensive than four 128GB modules
- NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 Delivers Leading Performance in MLPerf Inference v6.1 Debut
- ChatGPT transcripts are reportedly read by humans to improve responses, including those with personal information — 'Project Lilly' has seen OpenAI hire hundred
Informational only. No financial advice. Do your own research.