Licensed by the U.S. case by case; Beijing withholding approval for large-scale imports
Indicated orders from China are not precise, but the total of over six million includes more than three million from ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent. The big three ordered at about $11,400 each, for a total sticker price over $35 billion. This is difficult to fill when there may be fewer than three million produced next year, and partners might only actually get 5% to 10% of the original ask. Starting in 2027, much of Nvidia’s TSMC capacity may shift to Rubin, taking more production, while the RTX Pro 5500’s early samples are due in December.
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On the legal side, it’s currently easier to rent than to own as current U.S. law does not give regulators broad authority over overseas cloud access. The Remote Access Security Act (RASA), which would extend U.S. export controls to that area, has sailed through the House but has not yet passed the Senate. Those directly affected — neoclouds and related financiers — price in a possible ban regardless, which drives the upfront premium.
China’s side is not completely clean, either, with about 600,000 H200s reportedly stuck in storage in Hong Kong awaiting shipment to the mainland. Beijing is withholding approvals for large-volume imports such as this. Only relatively small quantities have come in during recent months, for some big internet companies, with others coming through intermediaries and indirect routes in small quantities. The price: over $900,000 for an eight-card H200 server in China at the end of last month, about 3x the cost a year ago. This is despite the fact that H200 sales are already under U.S. license.
The first test that will show how many cards will actually land occurs in Q1 2027, when the RTX Pro 5500 is expected in commercial deliveries. For rentals, whether or not the Remote Access Security Act is a factor depends on a Senate vote, which is not yet scheduled. Nvidia’s Q3 results come in soon, on Nov. 17, which could bring some illumination.
With CEO Jensen Huang under scrutiny lately over reports that he was targeted by an alleged Chinese spy , which Nvidia’s board is now investigating, he’s going to feel the heat even more just a day later, when lawmakers have asked him to attend a closed-door briefing. He’s been pushing for laxer controls and more access, so the assumed 51% rule will also be put to the test.
Shane Downing Social Links Navigation Contributing Writer Shane Downing is a Contributing Writer for Tom’s Hardware, covering consumer storage, PC hardware, and AI.
Key considerations
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Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/policy/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/policy/nvidia-cracks-down-on-overseas-cloud-ai-gpu-rentals-for-china-partners-face-51-percent-non-chinese-quota-as-black-market-b300-rack-prices-surge-to-usd2-8-million#main
- https://www.tomshardware.com/my-account
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