Jowi Morales Social Links Navigation Contributing Writer Jowi Morales is a tech enthusiast with years of experience working in the industry. He’s been writing with several tech publications since 2021, where he’s been interested in tech hardware and consumer electronics.
usertests Team Group CEO Chen Ching-wen said during the company’s November 2 earnings call that the memory chip shortage is expected to become worse from the end of 2026 until the end of 2027. It might go that way, but all pre-Nov 3 predictions are outdated in light of the U.S. election results. It's as simple as that. Reply
hotaru251 i mean it'll be 2030 by time new factories start producing volume at earliest. Only hope prior to that is if the bubble pops and infinite scaling mentality is shown to not be viable and thus they dont consume everything and theres actual supply again. Reply
Vicecrow I don't know what dram is… It's time to get my Edo ram to work again Reply
thestryker It seems like a pretty rational conclusion given that no new capacity has come online yet. Without demand falling there's no way for any real pricing stabilization before there's more capacity. Team Group is one of the companies entirely at the whims of the market so it doesn't really benefit them to inflate concern. I was hoping for somewhat of a static pricing situation for next year, at least at the retail level, but it's very much reliant on nothing changing. Reply
alan.campbell99 Reckon I'll be keeping all my laptops in case one manifests a RAM issue, could be an issue replacing any of it . Reply
KitsuneKas thestryker said: It seems like a pretty rational conclusion given that no new capacity has come online yet. Without demand falling there's no way for any real pricing stabilization before there's more capacity. Team Group is one of the companies entirely at the whims of the market so it doesn't really benefit them to inflate concern. I was hoping for somewhat of a static pricing situation for next year, at least at the retail level, but it's very much reliant on nothing changing. What demand? Aside from the major players like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, etc., AI companies are reporting hardware idle times upwards of 70%. There's already more infrastructure than there is demand. Companies are reporting that they're buying more hardware than they actually need to meet their demands, just to keep it out of the hands of their competitors. At this point the demand is essentially self-sustaining. RAM is scarce because everyone is buying RAM because RAM is scarce because… Reply
thestryker KitsuneKas said: What demand? Aside from the major players like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, etc., AI companies are reporting hardware idle times upwards of 70%. There's already more infrastructure than there is demand. Companies are reporting that they're buying more hardware than they actually need to meet their demands, just to keep it out of the hands of their competitors. At this point the demand is essentially self-sustaining. RAM is scarce because everyone is buying RAM because RAM is scarce because… You realize that demand doesn't need a reason right? It's being bought at a rate higher than it can be produced which means demand outstrips supply. Reply
usertests thestryker said: You realize that demand doesn't need a reason right? It's being bought at a rate higher than it can be produced which means demand outstrips supply. And that demand can evaporate suddenly, after some kind of black swan event. AI investors forced to navigate the blue wave AI's Building Boom Meets A Blue Wave. 'Neocloud' Stocks Fall. Reply
rangerstyle Sooooo….demand for AI means more data centers, which creates demand for memory, yet consumers wanting to use the AI cant because they lack the memory in their own computers to utilize the AI. Eventually something will have to give. Reply
thesyndrome rangerstyle said: Sooooo….demand for AI means more data centers, which creates demand for memory, yet consumers wanting to use the AI cant because they lack the memory in their own computers to utilize the AI. Eventually something will have to give. The conspiracy theory is that this is a planned effort to make it so the only devices consumers can buy are cheap devices using older memory and with barely any storage, with the goal of having these devices be used ONLY for streaming cloud computing (because they will be too weak for anything else), where we would have to pay a subscription to cloud providers to use their services in an extremely locked down way that is completely controlled; think of it like Nvidia's Geforce Now, except instead of remotely connecting to a PC that is running a game, you are remotely connecting to a PC so you can use a user area on it, which will be monitored and restricted to prevent any autonomy by the user. If that has any truth to it, then that will be the way these companies want us to access their AI: in an operating system not locally installed, that is completely at their mercy that we are paying for the privilege for. Reply
Key considerations
- Investor positioning can change fast
- Volatility remains possible near catalysts
- Macro rates and liquidity can dominate flows
Reference reading
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/SPONSORED_LINK_URL
- https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/team-group-ceo-warns-memory-crisis-could-reach-point-where-even-money-cant-buy-goods-will-get-worse-next-year-with-no-downward-trend-in-price-whatsoever#main
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